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Several rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms are expected to impact Florida on Friday and Saturday.

Isolated severe thunderstorm cells, and localized flash flooding will be possible, especially across parts of South Florida, where storm total rainfall amounts are forecasted to range between three and six inches.

On Thursday morning, a trough of low pressure was positioned over the western Gulf Coast, near Corpus Christie. Scattered shower and thunderstorm activity was already developing in the vicinity of this feature, from San Antonio eastward to Houston and western Louisiana.

Throughout the remainder of the day Thursday, this low was forecasted to strengthen as it tracks east northeastward, paralleling the western and central Gulf Coast.

A warm front should develop southeast of the center of low pressure, and this boundary will likely stretch through the Gulf and approach the state of Florida from the west late Thursday evening into early Friday morning. Along and ahead of the front, a complex of heavy rain and thunderstorms is forecasted to develop, and these storms will likely produce periods of heavy rain, gusty winds, and a few strong thunderstorms over the southern two thirds of the peninsula on Friday morning.


Moderate to heavy rain rates are expected to continue through the day Friday and potentially into early Saturday morning across South Florida. Rainfall totals could reach three to six inches across Monroe, Collier, Broward, and Miami Dade counties. Interests in locations like Naples, Fort Lauderdale, Miami, and Key West should prepare for localized flash flooding.

In addition, the atmosphere will be supportive of severe thunderstorm development, especially over South Florida and along the immediate Gulf Coast of the peninsula. Interests in Tampa-St. Petersburg, Fort Myers, Naples , West Palm Beach, Miami, and the Keys should remain alert as storms could quickly produce brief waterspouts/tornadoes or damaging straight line winds.

While the warm front aids in shower and thunderstorm development over the peninsula, the core of low pressure should track northeastward from the Central Gulf Coast region inland through Alabama and Georgia. The low will drag a cold front through Florida’s Panhandle during the afternoon and evening hours on Friday, and along this boundary we expect a broken line of thunderstorms to develop. As with the storms over the peninsula, the cells along the cold front could produce periods of heavy rain rates, gusty winds, and tornadoes. While rain is expected for most of the day Friday over the southern half of the peninsula, storms likely won’t become widespread over the Panhandle until the afternoon and evening Friday, lasting through early Saturday morning.

In anticipation of Friday’s system, forecasters at the Weather Prediction Center have outlined most of the Panhandle and South Florida under a level one out of four (or “marginal”) risk for flash flooding. The Miami metro area is under a level two out of four risk for flooding (or “slight”). In addition, meteorologists at the Storm Prediction Center have included most of Florida’s Gulf Coast and South Florida under a level one out of five (or “marginal”) risk for severe thunderstorms on Friday.

The cold front from this system should track from the Panhandle through the peninsula during the day Saturday, and another round of strong storms is possible from the I-4 corridor southward. Any additional rainfall could overwhelm the already saturated environment, and localized flooding could become more widespread.

Conditions across the Sunshine State should improve by the latter half of the weekend. By Sunday, skies should be mostly sunny from the Panhandle to the Keys and highs should range from the upper 60s in the north, to the upper 70s in the south.
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The countdown to hurricane season has begun, and Florida emergency management offices are sharing their safety tips to empower residents to act ahead of potential storms.

Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30, but tropical cyclone activity can sometimes occur before and after these dates.

Leon County Director of Community Relations and Resilience Mathieu Cavell and Seminole County Emergency Management Division Manager Steven Lerner share that it is never too early to prepare for a hurricane. To avoid rushing through potentially life-saving preparations, take the necessary precautions a few months out to ensure a smooth transition into hurricane season.

“This hurricane season is expected to be one of particular concern because of how warm the waters are so early in the calendar year,” Lerner said. “We want residents in Florida to get prepared as soon as possible. Step number one is to make a plan.”

Preparing your home

For homeowners, a crucial step to preparing your home for hurricane season is to review your insurance policy and how it applies to your property. Consider how much it covers and if you should make any modifications.

“Now is the time to be able to ask questions because you will not be able to change your insurance policy when you are in a five-day error code of an approaching hurricane,” Cavell said.

In the event of an approaching storm, having a checklist detailing preparations to make, like removing patio furniture and securing windows and other loose items, can significantly enhance your readiness and safety.

Cavell also recommends considering when you would evacuate your home during a storm and where your family will take shelter. Do not forget to consider any animals in your plans.

“If an individual lives in a mobile or manufactured home or an area that has flooded previously, they should highly consider evacuation as the best form of getting out of the elements,” Lerner said.

Building an emergency kit

Creating an emergency kit is an essential step in any storm preparation. Make sure you have all of the materials, supplies and information if you were to evacuate.

A good rule to follow is to have a two-week supply of medications, food and water in your kit. Keep in mind that you may be asked to leave your shelter with little notice. Pack your kit ahead of time to avoid any confusion and stress.

What to put in an emergency kit:


Depending on your family’s needs, your kit may look different than others. Consider everyone who may shelter with you and their needs.

Where to look for local updates

“Often some of the biggest mistakes folks make is not knowing where to get the best and most current, accurate emergency information in their community,” Cavell said. “It is one thing to be able to watch national news and see an approaching storm…but it might not be this specific community-driven information.”

State-wide radio and your local public radio station are reliable sources of information to get timely and accurate updates.

Being familiar with your county’s emergency management office can help you locate sandbags, evacuation routes and emergency shelters. The Florida Division of Emergency Management shares information on applying for housing assistance, disaster preparedness and other state-wide resources for Florida residents.

Special Needs shelters

During a severe weather event, needs can vary from individual to individual based on their medical status. Florida maintains a special needs registry at a local and state level.

“Every need is special, but special needs are specifically defined as having a medical need for care that requires electricity for a long period of time,” Cavell said.

Your county emergency management can direct you to the appropriate resources for your family.

Helping your community recover

“After a hurricane, some of the best and easiest things that you can do is stay off the road and allow folks the opportunity to clear those roadways to make sure that they are safe for everyone,” Cavell said. “As trees go down, they untangle live power lines. If you can just stay at home and keep your family safe and entertained to an extent, then you are better off for it.”

Many hurricane-related injuries come after the storm when people begin to clean up when it is not safe to do so, according to Lerner. Only when the area is said to be clear of debris and water is it safe to exit your shelter.

If you feel compelled to help after your community is cleared of any hazards, volunteering with a nonprofit is one way to provide disaster relief. Affiliating yourself with a nonprofit now allows time for the organization to go through the necessary registration and training process.

Volunteer Florida, the American Red Cross and the Salvation Army are all organizations that can connect you to local chapters in need of helping hands. In addition to working with nonprofits, vulnerable populations like seniors in your neighborhood may need help.

Follow Florida Public Radio Emergency Network on Twitter and Facebook for the latest updates, advisories and critical information this hurricane season. The Florida Storms app is available for download on the App Store and Google Play.
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A rare early-season warning from Accuweather meteorologists forecasts an ominous 2024 hurricane season due to, among other reasons, February sea temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean resembling summertime.

Accuweather forecasters are also seeing the El Nino weather pattern in place right now giving way to the hurricane-favorable La nNina pattern, which might be in place by the start of tropical weather season June 1.

“Accuweather’s long-range expert team here is really sounding the alarm bells about what this upcoming hurricane season could become in terms of making it a supercharged season with the risks for many storms with some of these factors coming together,” Porter said in a special online segment the forecasters felt important to produce even this much in advance of the 2024 Hurricane season.

Here in Florida, where since 2000 there has been some 13 hurricanes and 79 tropical or extra-tropical storms, the outlook, just yet, hasn’t risen to alarm level.

FPREN/WGCU

“So first thing to note is that we are over three months away from the official start of the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Do systems sometimes form before June 1? Yes,” said Megan Borowski, chief meteorologist, Florida Public Radio Emergency Network. “But even with that in mind, we still have a lot of time before things may start developing.

I mention that because this far out, we can only look at long term signals — climate signals and seasonal patterns to help guide our thinking of what the upcoming season will bring.”

She added: “And meteorologists will typically look at things that may influence the ingredients for tropical weather: sea surface temperatures and upper level wind patterns.”

The top aspects of 2024’s storm season causing some concern: The return of La Niña and historically warm water across the Atlantic Ocean.

The crux of the Accuweather cautionary alert was the transition of the current El Niño pattern that is forecast to transition into a La Niña pattern during the second half of the hurricane season, Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather’s lead hurricane forecaster, said.

“We’re going to see a transition from that El Nino pattern to more of a la Nino pattern, which means cooler than average temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific equatorial regions,” he explained. “And so what that would mean is less wind shear across the Atlantic basin, which could promote more tropical development.”

DaSilva said the second biggest indicating factor was water temperature:

“Oh, absolutely, this is going to be the probably the second biggest X Factor for the season thus far are temperatures across the Atlantic basin, if you take the average temperature across the Atlantic basin as a whole, we are currently where we should be in middle May,” he said. “If we’re seeing those water temperatures, this warm this far early. That leads us to be very concerned, as we move into the tropical season later on in the year.”

Borowski, who is also interim director for FPREN, said that regarding sea surface temperatures — they are very warm in the lower latitudes of the Atlantic — on the order of 1-2 degrees above average now, and if the forecast holds, they will remain warmer than normal into the hurricane season. This is a concern, she said, because the warm ocean serves as a source of energy for tropical systems

NOAA

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WGCU

She, too, pointed to the El Nino to La Nina change.

“Another thing that we are watching the is phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation—we are in an El Nino, which has contributed to a cool and rainy winter for most Floridians, but the El Nino is forecasted to transition to neutral conditions, then followed by La Nina during the summer,” she said. “Although El Nino and La Nina are detected over the Pacific, but they have implications around the world, including in the upper level wind pattern over the tropical Atlantic. La Nina can reduce vertical wind shear over the Atlantic, and this reduction in shear can in turn help keep thunderstorms vertically oriented.”

In layman’s terms, reduced shear means that a system can remain organized, and provided other factors are in place, a tropical system can grow.

Borowski conceded that there is above average warmth in the Atlantic already, and the signs that we are going to enter a La Nina just in time for hurricane season, that are giving us clues that 2024 might be an active Atlantic hurricane season.

“Those are things that are giving us clues that 2024 might be an active Atlantic hurricane season. Other than that, we need to wait until closer to season to make more detailed forecasts,” she said.

The Accuweather forecast is one of the earliest made so far this year. The 2024 hurricane season forecast from Colorado State University, considered the pre-eminent forecasting center, isn’t due out until April 4.

Philip Klotzbach, a CSU meteorologist specializing in Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecasts, cautioned in a Tweet earlier this month: “It should be noted that it’s only February, and a lot can change between now and when the Atlantic hurricane season really ramps up (typically in early to mid August).”

Klotzbach said he would certainly agree with AccuWeather that the odds favor an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season at this point.

“It’s very unlikely that we will have El Nino for the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season in 2024. NOAA currently gives the odds at 2% for August-October,.” he said. “Normally El Nino reduces Atlantic hurricane activity via increases in vertical wind shear.”

Currently, the Atlantic is in a highly favorable sea surface temperature configuration for an active hurricane season:

Weathermodel.com

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Special to WGCU

This pattern is very similar to the sea surface temperature pattern that has historically correlated with busy Atlantic hurricane seasons:

However, the CSU weather expert said that it is important to realize that a lot can change between now and when the hurricane season typically ramps up in August.

For example, he said, at this time last year, the Atlantic was pretty unremarkable from a sea surface temperature anomaly perspective:

But by the end of June 2023, the CSU meteorologist said forecasters were dealing with record warm anomalies across vast swaths of the Atlantic, leading to big increases in their seasonal forecast last year, despite the strong El Nino:

Klotzbach said that an extremely weak subtropical high during March-June 2023 caused much weaker than normal winds blowing across the tropical and subtropical Atlantic, leading to less evaporation than normal, and hence anomalous warming (e.g., warming much faster than normal) last year.

“While I’m not saying that the opposite is going to happen this year, there’s just too much uncertainty at this long lead time to be too confident in a hyperactive season,” he said. “If these current anomalies persist through the end of March, however, I do expect we’ll be coming out with quite an aggressive forecast with our 4 April outlook. However, I’ve seen a lot of crazy things happen in the weather department in March.

The 2005 and 2020 hurricane seasons are tied for the most active in recorded history with each season generating 31 tropical systems. La Niña was building fast during the 2005 season, and was firmly established amid the 2020 season.

WGCU is your trusted source for news and information in Southwest Florida. We are a nonprofit public service, and your support is more critical than ever. Keep public media strong and donate now. Thank you.

WGCU is your trusted source for news and information in Southwest Florida. We are a nonprofit public service, and your support is more critical than ever. Keep public media strong and donate now. Thank you.

A cold front is set to impact the state over the weekend with a notable drop in temperatures, and soaking rains.

Clouds will be in place starting Friday evening, with some showers possible. However during the day Saturday, a cold front will sweep through the peninsula.

Both days of the weekend will be generally cloudy, cool and rainy. But the coolest temperatures are expected Sunday afternoon.

The temperature departures from average will be most notable across north and central parts of the state.

For example, the forecast high Sunday in Orlando is only 58 degrees, almost 20 degrees below the average high in Orlando of 75. Tampa will also be much cooler than average, with afternoon temperatures that may not climb out of the 50s.

By contrast, last Sunday was quite warm. Orlando’s high last Sunday was 87, a week to week difference of nearly 30 degrees. Jacksonville reached 85 degrees last Sunday, while this Sunday will only warm into the middle 50s.

Rain will continue off and on all weekend, as a disturbance tracks over the cold front from west to east. The cool air will not linger. By Tuesday, most of the state can expect a return to near average temperatures.
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Lee County Government coordinated with its partnering entities Tuesday afternoon to activate its Cold Weather Outreach Plan while Charlotte County opened a cold weather shelter.

In Lee, Severe Weather Outreach Teams are mobilized to specific locations when inland temperatures are projected to drop to 40 degrees or lower for an extended period. Teams include Human & Veteran Services staff and members of the HOT Team (Housing, Outreach and Treatment), including law enforcement and Centerstone Behavioral Health.

Teams provide cold weather items, and access to transportation to shelter at the Bob Janes Empowerment Center.

Outreach efforts will happen 3 to 5 p.m. today, Feb. 6.

Lee County Human & Veteran Services’ (HVS) coordinated entry phone line has information regarding outreach locations, transportation assistance, sheltering and supplies. The number is 239-533-7996.

The department’s HVS Reach app, which is available for free download on the Apple App Store and Google Play, will also be updated. Persons experiencing homelessness can sign up to receive push alerts from the app.

The county has identified several designated outreach locations on or near LeeTran routes where volunteers and staff will distribute blankets, hand-warmers, socks and assist with transportation if a person experiencing homelessness accepts a sheltering offer.

Lee County Department of Public Safety’s Emergency Management staff is monitoring the cold temperatures and encourages residents to monitor updates from the National Weather Service.
For more information about the Lee County Human & Veteran Services, visit www.leegov.com/dhs.

Charlotte County

A National Weather Service forecast of a low of 46 degrees Wednesday morning for Charlotte County with a minimum wind chill of 39 degrees prompted the opening of a cold weather shelter.

The Charlotte County Homeless Coalition, 1476 Kenesaw St., Port Charlotte, will provide shelter to persons needing refuge from the cold. Guest will need to pre-register by calling 941-627-4313 and arrive by 8 p.m.

For information, contact Todd Dunn at 941-740-1929 or Todd.Dunn@CharlotteCountyFL.gov.

WGCU is your trusted source for news and information in Southwest Florida. We are a nonprofit public service, and your support is more critical than ever. Keep public media strong and donate now. Thank you.

WGCU is your trusted source for news and information in Southwest Florida. We are a nonprofit public service, and your support is more critical than ever. Keep public media strong and donate now. Thank you.

A few rounds of heavy rain with embedded thunderstorms will move across the state, beginning Saturday afternoon. The primary band of heavy rain is expected to reach the Florida Panhandle early Saturday afternoon before approaching the west coast of Florida near sunrise Sunday.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue across the state for much of Sunday. Some storms could be severe. The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of south and central Florida, including Tampa, Miami and Ft. Lauderdale, in the MARGINAL category for severe storms Sunday. The primary severe threat is damaging winds, with the possibility of an isolated tornado.

Flash flooding is also a concern. The Weather Prediction Center has placed the state in the MARGINAL category for flash flooding Sunday. Forecast models are suggesting accumulation of rain could be in excess of 1.5 inches. Additional rain is likely Monday before this upper level low pressure system exits our area, but rain Monday is expected to be lighter and more intermittent.
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Florida’s wildfire season, which runs from the spring through the mid-summer, may feature fewer acres burned this coming year thanks to above average winter rainfall due to the onset of El Niño.

Florida’s wildfire season is closely linked to El Niño events. The climate pattern causes an uptick in wintertime storms across Florida and above average precipitation, which in turn can suppress wildfire activity. So far this winter, many locations across the state have received above average rainfall, and the patter is set to continue until the arrival of Florida’s fire season, beginning at the end of March.

In June, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center declared the arrival of El Niñoand shared a prediction for a moderate-to-strong event by late fall/early winter. This has steered Florida away from any wildfire activity, Meteorologist David Zierden with the Florida Climate Center said.

The Sandy Fire in the Big Cypress National Preserve in thee Spring of 2023 burned for more than for a week. Fire officials say lighting started the blaze, which charred nearly 10,000 acres and caused smoke to reduce visibility along area roadways

Matt Counts

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National Park Service

The Sandy Fire in the Big Cypress National Preserve has been burning for a week. Fire officials say lighting startred the blaze, which has charred nearly 10,000 acres and is causing smoke to reduce visibility along area roadways


Equatorial sea surface temperatures are above average across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, a condition consistent with El Niño. The pattern is expected to continue for the next several seasons, with an ENSO-neutral state favored during April through June 2024.

“I think we’re in pretty good shape,” Zierden said. “Due to the strong El Niño that we’re in, the state of Florida has mostly seen above-normal rainfall since November. Above-normal rainfall during the dry season– that’s a good thing, and it will help the wildfire potential across the state.

La Niña , the opposite effect of El Niño , brings warmer and drier weather to the South with the help of a Polar Jet Stream. It can lead to the onset of a long and widespread drought, worsening wildfire conditions. Zierden said that is exactly what happened in 2001.

By May 2001, the Florida Division of Forestry reported 2,825 fires burned 254,360 acres in the state since January of that year. More acres of land had been burned in 2001 than what is normally burned in an entire year, according to officials.

Arson was suspected the cause of one notable fire in Southwest Florida. Dry soil and high winds picked up the flames, turning it into a raging forest fire.

The outlook for 2024 paints a different picture, at least for now.

As of Thursday, most Florida counties are at a moderate level for fire danger. The rating explains that fires can start from most accidental causes but are relatively easy to control and not likely to become serious threats.

While the wet conditions are limiting wildfire activity, there’s still the buildup of plant material that acts as fuel for wildfires. Without the prescribed burns, this extra vegetation continues to be stored away.

“It limits the number of days that are suitable for prescribed fire,” Zierden said. “As we get further into the spring, that might have an impact. Forest managers may not be able to carry out the amount of controlled burning that they would like, leading to more fuel buildup.”

Forest fires are a necessary tool that goes beyond wildfire management. For Florida’s environment, they are providing areas for new growth, food for animals and pathways for larger predators. Some plants even require the heat of a fire to trigger the release of their seeds.

As Florida becomes more populated, the desire becomes to control wildfires to prevent threats to property and natural resources. Poor air quality is a big concern for nearby populations. It’s heavily monitored by the Florida Forest Service.

Smoke is a hazardous mix of air pollutants that can have both short-term and long-term health effects. To minimize the impacts on sensitive areas, the Florida Forest Service observes wind and direction, mixing height, atmospheric stability, topography, land cover, time of day, and humidity.

The balance between climate patterns and environmental risks shows the importance of forest management. Each year, thousands of acres of land and many homes are lost due to extreme wildfire events. Fires can erupt at any time of year from several causes.

As communities continue to build in areas that were once wildland, fire prevention becomes everyone’s responsibility. Arson and escaped burning yard debris are the two leading causes of wildfires in Florida.

Ultimately, the responsibility extends beyond Florida’s forest managers and firefighters.

Education on wildfires and their danger is a key proponent in mitigating all types of unwanted fire.
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WGCU is your trusted source for news and information in Southwest Florida. We are a nonprofit public service, and your support is more critical than ever. Keep public media strong and donate now. Thank you.

Lee County Government is coordinating with its partnering entities this weekend to activate its Cold Weather Outreach Plan.

Severe Weather Outreach Teams are mobilized to specific locations when inland temperatures are projected to drop to 40 degrees or lower for an extended period.

Teams include Human & Veteran Services staff and members of the HOT Team (Housing, Outreach and Treatment), including law enforcement and Centerstone Behavioral Health. Teams provide cold weather items and access to transportation to shelter at the Bob Janes Empowerment Center.

Outreach efforts began today and will continue through the weekend.

Lee County Human & Veteran Services’ coordinated entry phone line has information regarding outreach locations, transportation assistance, sheltering and supplies. The number is 239-533-7996.

The department’s Lee Reach app, which is available for free download on the Apple App Store and Google Play, will also be updated. Persons experiencing homelessness can sign up to receive push alerts from the app.

The county has identified several designated outreach locations on or near LeeTran routes where volunteers and staff will distribute blankets, hand-warmers, socks, and assist with transportation if a person experiencing homelessness accepts a sheltering offer.

Emergency Management is monitoring the cold temperatures and encourages residents to monitor updates from the National Weather Service.

For more information about the Lee County Human & Veteran Services, visit www.leegov.com/dhs.

WGCU is your trusted source for news and information in Southwest Florida. We are a nonprofit public service, and your support is more critical than ever. Keep public media strong and donate now. Thank you.

WGCU is your trusted source for news and information in Southwest Florida. We are a nonprofit public service, and your support is more critical than ever. Keep public media strong and donate now. Thank you.

Just a few days after tornadoes ripped through parts of the Florida Panhandle, another winter storm is threatening parts of the Sunshine State. Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible over the Panhandle and the northern half of the Florida peninsula on Friday.

Early on Friday morning, an area of low pressure was strengthening over the Midwest. The storm was producing heaving snow over northern parts of Iowa, Wisconsin, Indiana, and Illinois including the Chicago metro area. In addition, the system was producing heavy rain and severe thunderstorms over the Tennessee Valley and Lower Mississippi Valley.

The storm is forecasted to continue on a northeastward track throughout the day Friday, but circulation around the system should drive two fronts, a warm and cold front, through Florida. As these boundaries pass through the state, they could trigger isolated severe thunderstorms over the Panhandle, and north/central Florida.

Meteorologists at the Storm Prediction center outlined the Panhandle, including Tallahassee, Panama City, and Pensacola as under a level two out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms on Friday. Parts of the peninsula including Jacksonville, Gainesville, Ocala, Tampa, and Orlando are under a level one out of five risk. From these isolated severe cells, damaging wind gusts between 60 and 70 mph will be the primary hazard, however a few tornadoes will be possible too.

Scattered cells are possible throughout the day Friday over the outlined regions as a warm front lift from south to north. During the early afternoon, a broken squall line should then track from west to east through the western Panhandle, followed by the Big Bend during the evening, and the peninsula on Friday night.

As usual, interests in these areas are encouraged to continue monitoring the forecast and to heed weather alerts if they are issued for your immediate area.

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WGCU is your trusted source for news and information in Southwest Florida. We are a nonprofit public service, and your support is more critical than ever. Keep public media strong and donate now. Thank you.