Low pressure region eyed; could form Tropical Depression Emily; Don turns hurricane — won’t last

The tropics will need to be monitored even closer than normal for late July.

Hurricane Don, swirling around the north-central Atlantic and no threat to the U.S., formed on Saturday afternoon.

But there is also an area of low pressure in the central tropical Atlantic that has a good chance to develop into Tropical Depression Emily in the next few days.

In the past 24 hours, this system has been designated INVEST-95L. The NHC makes these designations so they can start running computer models on areas of disturbed weather. For now, 95L is forecasted to take a slow westward track that will put it near the Leeward Islands early next week.

Braun, Michael

It is too soon to be talking about threats for anywhere on the U.S. mainland, but it’s never too soon to keep making those hurricane preparations.

The NHC said that environmental conditions appear generally conducive for some gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form in the next several days as it moves westward across the tropical Atlantic.

Formation chance through 48 hours was put at 50 percent and at 70 percent through 7 days.

As for Don, today’s strengthening was the result of the storm passing over the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream, however it will move north of those warmer waters later this evening, and Don has likely peaked in intensity. Weakening should begin overnight, with a faster rate of weakening expected Sunday through Monday as Don moves over even colder waters and the vertical wind shear increases. The cyclone is expected to become post-tropical by Sunday night, and dissipate by Monday night or early Tuesday.

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